Brock Lesnar vs. Cain Velasquez: Inside the Numbers

Written by Tom Ngo
October 19th, 2010

UFC Heavyweight Champ Brock Lesnar

In addition to all the extra pre-fight promotional hoopla involved with every UFC event Brock Lesnar stars in, the Gambling Gods also go out of their way to up the ante by inciting gambleholics with intriguing prop bets. Given the fact three underdogs came through last Saturday at UFC 120, the hysteric state gamblers are in is completely understandable.

Up until yesterday, the heavyweight king had remained a solid -170 favorite against Cain Velasquez. However, with Saturday steadily approaching, the money started to swing on the Mexican-American’s side of the pendulum.

The powers that be swiftly respond by lowering his line to only -125. However, it appears Lesnar supporters pounced on the more favorable odds and the line has since been readjusted to -150 … for the time being.

Whichever side you chose to invest your money in is your choice, but here’s what Ngo-stradamus is suggesting. The chances of this 25-minute scrap going the distance could be rated anywhere between slim-to-none. That being said, gamblers should double-dip by risking their chips on the fighter to win, as well as that same fighter to finish.

Let’s just use Lesnar, for example (HINT, HINT). If one fancied the reigning champ as a 1.5-to-1 favorite, risktakers should drop some dough on him collecting his sixth pro victory before the final horn sounds as well.

The former WWE stud owns a dominant 5-1 record, with a pair of wins coming via some form of knockout, two submissions and one unanimous decision. His triumphant MMA debut ended in the 1stRound, he’s collected three of his wins in the second stanza with none ending in the third.

Lesnar’s sole blemish came in a 1stRound submission loss to Frank Mir. He’s never gone into the championship rounds since donning Octagon gold.

Here are all the available betting lines for Lesnar vs. Velasquez (Courtesy of Bodog.com):

Straight Up:

Brock Lesnar -150

Cain Velasquez +125

Finish vs. Decision:

Brock Lesnar wins via finish +130

Brock Lesnar wins via decision +300

Cain Velasquez wins via finish +200

Cain Velasquez wins via decision +400

Draw +4000

Over/Under 1stRound:

Cain Velasquez completes 1 full round -280

Cain Velasquez won’t complete 1 full round +200

Over/Under 2ndRound:

Cain Velasquez completes 2 full rounds -180

Cain Velasquez won’t complete 2 full rounds +140

Over/Under 4thRound:

Cain Velasquez completes 4 full rounds +300

Cain Velasquez won’t complete 4 full rounds -500

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